Spain's southern region of Andalusia is soon set for elections. On Sunday May 17th, Andaluces head to the polls in a vote that will be keenly watched around the country.
The campaign will see big name candidates with name and face recognition, results expected to have a ripple effect on national politics, and perhaps even a preview of how negotiations between the centre-right PP and far-right Vox could go at the national level.
If the polls are to be believed, the election could also signal another regional election defeat for the governing Socialists (PSOE) and Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.
As it stands, the PP dominates the Andalusian parliament with 58 seats, followed by the PSOE (30) and Vox (14), with smaller leftist parties splitting 5 seats between them.
When is polling day?
The Andalusian regional election has been called for Sunday 17th May 2026.
Who are the candidates?
PP - Juanma Moreno
The favourite, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, is the ruling People's Party President of Andalusia.
In 2018, Moreno's PP secured a historic victory to end three decades of PSOE rule in the region. In 2022 the PP retained power with an absolute majority in an unprecedented victory for the party which was a long-time PSOE stronghold.
Now Moreno is seeking a third term, though his and his party's standing has taken a reputational hit in the region in recent months following the breast cancer screening scandal and criticisms of management in the Andalusian public healthcare system.
READ ALSO: EXPLAINED - The breast cancer scandal that's outraged Spain
PSOE - María Jesús Montero
María Jesús Montero is deputy Prime Minister and Spain's recognisable Finance Minister.
A Seville native, Montero has been criticised for not kickstarting her campaign soon and keeping up her posts in Madrid. Opponents have dubbed her a "weekend candidate" for trying to juggle both responsibilities.
The political wisdom is that Montero has been dispatched to Andalusia to try and offset the rightward drift in the region but it remains unclear how successful she can be.
Por Andalucía - Antonio Maíllo
Veteran left-wing politician Antonio Maíllo will be the candidate for Por Andalucía, an umbrella group that encompasses several smaller left-wing parties.
Malillo has solid name recognition in the region and is an experienced campaigner, something that might prove necessary considering that José Ignacio García will lead another group, Adelante Andalucía, which points to further fragmentation among parties to the left of PSOE.
Vox
Hard-right party Vox has yet to officially confirm its candidate but could still potentially play a big role in any future Andalusian government.
Manuel Gavira is Vox’s spokesperson and potential candidate, but has in recent months been overshadowed by Pepa Millán, a young politician who is currently a spokesperson in the Spanish Congress and someone with a national profile.
Whatever happens, if Moreno's PP fails to secure the numbers for an absolute majority, one of them could become vice president of Andalusia.
What do the polls say?
The right-wing block seems almost certain to win, but the unknown is whether the PP will win an absolute majority or not.
Moreno is the clear favourite in all the polls, which suggest he is on course to retain an absolute majority in the regional parliament (55 seats), unless the rise of Vox affects his ability to form a government.
Looking at a spread of recent polling data, every poll points to a PP lead, with the average around 20 percent.
Most polling companies have the PP anywhere between 15-22 percent ahead of the PSOE, but the key question is whether or not the centre-right party will be forced to negotiate, or even govern with, Vox.
Why does it matter?
In such a regional country with devolved powers, the results of regional elections can have a significant impact on politics at the national level.
If, as the polls suggest could happen, the PP wins an absolute majority, it will further add to the narrative that the PSOE, and with it, President Sánchez, are doomed to lose the next general election.
A heavy defeat in Andalusia following losses in Extremadura and Aragón would add to the narrative and send that the ruling Socialists are coming to the end of their cycle and Spain is awaiting a political sea change ushering in the right.
On that, PP-Vox negotiations in the aftermath (if the PP miss out on an absolute majority) would provide a further preview of potential coalition building at the national level might develop in the future.
READ ALSO: Spain's opposition says it's open to working with far-right Vox if elected
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