In a country known for its long and drawn out bureaucratic processes, it may be surprising to learn that there is talk of a possible nationwide election taking place in just two months time.
But given the coalition breakdown, many are pushing for Germans to go to the polls as soon as possible.
As The Local has been reporting, the coalition government broke down spectacularly last Wednesday - the same day Donald Trump won the US election - after Chancellor Olaf Scholz, of the Social Democrats (SPD) fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner, of the Free Democrats (FDP).
The parties in the coalition had been bickering for months, failing to reach agreements on matters such as economic policy. Now Germany has a minority government with two parties: Scholz's Social Democrats and the Greens - but elections are on the horizon which is likely to shake things up.
READ ALSO: What we know so far about the German government collapse
Scholz had initially insisted on holding the vote of confidence, which he expects to lose, in January next year.
He said that would pave the way for a federal election in March - around six months before elections were scheduled to be held at the end of September 2025.
But after pressure from opposition politicians, business leaders and the public, Scholz gave an interview at the weekend saying he was open to an earlier timeline.
The centre-left leader told broadcaster ARD that "asking for the vote of confidence before Christmas, if all sides agree, is no problem at all for me".
"I also want that it happens quickly," he said, referring to a snap election.
READ ALSO: What would a CDU election win mean for Germany?
Can an election even happen in such a short space of time?
After the confidence vote, which Scholz is expected to lose, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will have 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag, and new elections will then have to be held within 60 days under German rules.
That means if Scholz holds the vote of confidence this week, the process would be underway and an election in January is possible.
Kai Arzheimer, professor of Political Science at the University of Mainz, told The Local: "I think [an election in January] would probably be doable, but there could be problems, not least because some smaller parties still need to draw up their slates of candidates.
"To have an election in eight or nine weeks from now would certainly be ambitious."
Others have also raised concerns about a short timeframe. Experts are warning that there should not be a repeat of Berlin's election chaos in 2021, which resulted in an election re-run earlier this year.
The original vote saw widespread problems, mostly caused by the Berlin marathon taking place on the same day. Some voters were queuing for hours, and some polling stations ran out of ballot papers.
Federal Returning Officer Ruth Brand, who is the official responsible for organising elections, warned in a letter to Chancellor Scholz that shortening the already very tight deadline could lead to "incalculable risks" at all levels, especially in the municipalities.
However Brand made clear in a post on X on Friday that her team had "naturally begun preparations for a possible new election in order to be able to overcome the challenges posed by the shortened deadlines together with all those involved".
On Monday the federal and state electoral administrators will hold emergency talks to prepare for early elections.
Wir haben selbstverständlich mit den Vorbereitungen für eine mögliche #Neuwahl begonnen, um die Herausforderungen durch die verkürzten Fristen gemeinsam mit allen Beteiligten bewältigen zu können. Wir müssen alle Vorbereitungen wie bei einer regulären Bundestagswahl treffen.
— Die Bundeswahlleiterin (@Wahlleitung_de) November 7, 2024
What are the logistics to consider?
Election committees have to be appointed at district and state level, while poll workers have to be recruited and trained. In 2021, around 650,000 volunteer electoral assistants worked at polling stations and in postal voting on election day. Polling stations need to be set-up and equipped; there were around 60,000 polling stations in the 2021 election.
Voting notifications have to be sent out to more than 60 million voters. Furthermore, postal vote documents have to be sent out and postal voting districts set up - there were 25,000 in 2021. Brand also pointed to the testing of IT infrastructure and the risk of cyberattacks.
The parties also have a lot to organise before the election. The candidates for the 299 constituencies have to be determined and state lists drawn up and decided by party assemblies.
Smaller parties have to collect signatures of support and have them certified by the municipalities. There is a special deadline for these small parties: at the latest 13 weeks before the election, they have to notify officials in writing that they want to take part in the election.
There were also reports that there wouldn't be enough paper to print ballots and other election material at such short notice - something that was quickly debunked by the German paper industry.
When asked whether the German paper industry could deliver the necessary paper for election documents for a new election in January quickly enough, paper industry general manager Alexander von Reibnitz said: "Clear answer: yes. If ordered in time, we can deliver the paper required for an early federal election."
Leading municipal associations are also confident that a nationwide election can be held as early as January.
The German Association of Towns and Municipalities (DStGB) told FAZ newspaper: "Towns and municipalities are experienced in organising elections and are perfectly capable of preparing and holding an election within the deadlines."
What else could get in the way?
If President Steinmeier does not dissolve the parliament until after the Christmas holidays, the 60-day period would run until the beginning of March. However, between the end of January and the end of March, most German states have different school holiday periods, which could affect the election campaign and preparations.
Even if the vote was held in early March there could be clashes. On that Sunday carnival, Shrovetide or Mardi Gras will be celebrated in several regions. The largest state, North Rhine-Westphalia, will be preparing for Rosenmontag, and Bavaria, which is dominated by the CSU, will be celebrating its carnival holidays.
Meanwhile, Hamburg will be electing its state parliament, known as the Bürgerschaft, on March 2nd.
This could also become a political issue because Scholz used to be mayor of the Hanseatic city. The SPD is traditionally strong in Hamburg and the party could benefit from a local tailwind in federal politics. But according to opinion polls, the SPD may lose votes, while the CDU is hoping for gains.
Can foreign residents vote in federal elections?
Unfortunately not. Only German citizens can vote in a federal election.
That includes anyone with dual citizenship (for example those who hold a German passport and their origin nationality). After the law on dual nationality changed earlier this year, many more people may fall into this category.
People also have to be over the age of 18 in Germany to cast a ballot in federal elections.
Comments