Why the European right is eyeing fresh gains with Spain's election

Called by Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez after the left was routed in May 28th local elections, the vote could see the extreme right taking a share of power for the first time since the country's dictatorship ended in 1975.

The polls suggest Spain's next government will be a coalition of the right-wing Popular Party (PP) and the far-right Vox.

If the polls are accurate, it would confirm "an ongoing gradual normalisation of the far-right at a European level," said Steven Forti, a professor at Barcelona's Autonomous University.

For Sánchez, who has been in power since 2018 and heads a left-wing coalition with the hard-left Podemos, the stakes are high.

The election also carries consequences for the European left.

"It is clear there's an ongoing shift (to the right) and Spain is a very important bastion against this regressive and reactionary current," Ecology Minister Teresa Ribera told La Vanguardia newspaper.

 The Vox effect

Following the PP's triumph on May 28th, it appeared Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party was heading for a clear victory in the July 23rd snap election.

But then polls suggested that although the PP would win, it would fall short of an absolute majority of 176 within the 350-seat parliament, meaning it would need Vox's support to govern.

Ultra-nationalist and europhobic, Vox emerged in 2013 out of a split within the PP, bursting into parliament in 2019 as Spain's third-largest party.

READ ALSO: Ten things you need to know about Spain's far-right party Vox

But the right's momentum has slowed as the PP and Vox negotiated deals to govern in several regions they won from the left.

During the talks, Vox has held firm to several of its key principles, refusing to recognise gender violence or to budge on its climate denial.

Although such positions are not endorsed by the PP, Vox's stance has overshadowed the campaign of Feijóo, a self-declared moderate.

The four main players in Spain's upcoming general elections: Spain's Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez , right-wing party's leader Alberto Núnez Feijóo, radical-left Sumar party's leader Yolanda Díaz and Vox far-right party's leader Santiago Abascal. (Photo by AFP)

Sánchez has made the extremist threat his clarion call, warning that a vote for the PP would be tantamount to inviting Vox into government in what he argues would be a major step backwards for Spain.

His aim is twofold: to dissuade centrist voters from casting their ballots for the PP while also mobilising the half-a-million left-wing supporters who stayed at home on May 28th.

But Sánchez's slim hopes for a rebound were dashed following poor results from opinion polls after a July 10th televised debate against Feijóo.

READ MORE: Sánchez vs Feijóo - Who won Spain's election debate standoff?

Sánchez has also hammered home his economic record, with 5.5 percent growth last year. Spain last month also became the first major EU economy where inflation fell below 2.0 percent.

The problem for Sánchez is that the public still perceives the economic situation as very negative.

 

'Overthrowing Sanchismo'

Sánchez has taken the initiative on the media front, giving interviews to Spain's most popular TV programmes to play up his more personable side.

"Sánchez realises that he was wrong not to talk to media outlets that he considered to be hostile," said Cristina Monge, a political scientist at Zaragoza University.

But it may be too little, too late given that his personal image is very poor outside of left-wing circles, and has also suffered as a result of several Podemos-led reforms that caused a public backlash.

This has been used to great effect by Feijóo who has focused his campaign on "overthrowing Sanchismo" -- which he has defined as "changing the form and substance" of politics in Spain, and "revoking all those minority-based laws which harm the majority".

READ MORE: 'Sanchismo' - PM's personality cult or Spain's progressive reformism?

Sanchez is hoping he will be able to form a coalition with Labour Minister Yolanda Díaz's new leftist alliance Sumar, an unlikely scenario given the polls. It has recently been backed, albeit reluctantly, by Podemos, which has plunged in the polls.

Recent polls put Sumar neck-and-neck with Vox for third place.

Aside from the large number of undecided voters, another factor is the timing of the election -- at the height of summer when several million holidaymakers will have to vote by post.

But experts are increasingly ruling out a repeat of the inconclusive election of April 2019 when Spaniards were forced back to the ballot box several months later.

READ MORE: Will the right definitely win Spain's general election?