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2022 SWEDISH ELECTION

LATEST POLLS: Who is in the lead with two days to go until Sweden’s election?

Polls remain neck-and-neck just two days before Sweden's elections, with the right bloc narrowly in the lead. Here's a breakdown of the most recent polling figures.

LATEST POLLS: Who is in the lead with two days to go until Sweden's election?
Sweden's parliament, the Riksdag. Photo: Tim Aro/TT

Social Democrats

Still comfortably in the lead as Sweden’s largest party, the Social Democrats are on 29 percent of the vote in Wednesday’s SVT/Novus poll, an increase of 0.7 percent since 2018. This would give them 102 seats in parliament, two more than they currently hold.

This is a slight increase on Wednesday’s figures, where the Social Democrats were on 27.8 percent of the vote.

Sweden Democrats

After taking over from the Moderates as Sweden’s second-largest party in polls at the end of August, the Sweden Democrats are holding on to their lead and polled at 21 percent on Thursday, an increase of 3.5 percent since 2018. This would give them 74 seats in parliament if they receive the same amount of votes on Sunday, an increase of 12 since 2018.

This is a slight increase since Wednesday, where they were polling at 20.6 percent.

Moderates

Now at risk of becoming Sweden’s third-largest party after the election, the Moderates are polling at 18 percent, a drop of 1.8 percent since the 2018 election. This result would give them 64 seats in parliament, six fewer than they won in 2018.

On Wednesday, they were polling at 17.3 percent.

Centre

The Centre Party was polling at 7.5 percent of the vote in the most recent poll on Thursday, a drop of 1.1 percent since 2018. If it was to win this share of the vote on Sunday, its number of seats would drop by four, leaving it with 27.

This is a decrease from Wednesday’s figures, where it was polling at 8.6 percent.

Left

The Left Party is polling slightly lower than in 2018 – 7.4 percent of the vote. With this vote share it would lose two seats in parliament, leaving it with 26.

The Left was polling at 8 percent on Wednesday.

Christian Democrats

The Christian Democrats are polling at a similar level to last election: 5.8 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percent since 2018. This would give them two fewer seats in parliament, giving them a total of 20 seats.

This is a decrease from Wednesday’s figures, where the Christian Democrats were polling at 5.9 percent.

Greens

The Greens were at one point in the danger zone for winning under 4 percent of the vote and dropping out of parliament, although it appears now that they could be safe. They are polling at 5.2 percent with a margin of error of 0.8 percent, meaning they would be unlikely to receive less than 4.6 percent of the vote if the election were to be held today.

The Greens were polling at 5.7 percent on Wednesday.

If the Greens received 5.2 percent of the vote on Sunday this would be an increase of 0.8 percent since 2018, giving them an extra two seats, putting them on a total of 18.

Liberals

The Liberals also look like they may be safe. They are polling at 5.1 percent and have a margin of error of 0.8 percent, meaning the lower limit of their vote share is likely to be 4.3, just over the parliamentary threshold.

This is an increase since Wednesday, where they were polling at 4.8 percent and were at risk of dropping out of parliament.

If they were to win 5.1 percent of the vote, this would be a decrease of 0.4 percent since 2018. They would also lose two seats in parliament, putting them on a total of 18.

Left bloc

Although there are margins of error for each party and for each bloc as a whole meaning the vote could still go either way, the most recent polls put the left bloc (Social Democrats, Centre, Left and Greens) on 49.1 percent of the vote, an decrease of 0.2 percent since 2018. This would lower the government’s current one-seat majority by just two seats to 173 of parliament’s 349 seats.

On Wednesday, the left bloc were on 50.1 percent of the vote, which would win them 177 seats.

Right bloc

Again, the margins between the blocs are so tight that either side could still win. With that in mind, the most recent poll puts the right bloc (Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals) on 49.9 percent of the vote, an increase of 0.8 percent since 2018. This would give the opposition 176 seats, two more than their current 174 seats.

On Wednesday, this bloc was on 48.6 percent of the vote, which would give them 172 seats, two fewer than they currently hold.

How do the margins of error affect this?

The margins of error, which vary for each party, mean that the results in this poll are correct with 95 percent accuracy, plus or minus the margin of error.

This means, using the Social Democrats as an example, with their 1.6 percent margin of error, that there is a 95 percent chance that the Social Democrats would receive between 27.4 percent of the vote and 30.6 percent of the vote, if the election were to be held on the same day as the poll.

The margins of error for each party on Thursday were as follows:

Social Democrats: 1.6 percent

Sweden Democrats: 1.5 percent

Moderates: 1.4 percent

Centre: 1 percent

Left: 0.9 percent

Christian Democrats: 0.8 percent

Greens: 0.8 percent

Liberals: 0.8 percent

New polling information is released daily around 3pm.

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SWEDEN ELECTS

Sweden Elects: New finance minister under fire after first long interview

In our weekly Sweden Elects newsletter, The Local's editor Emma Löfgren explains the key events to keep an eye on in Swedish politics this week.

Sweden Elects: New finance minister under fire after first long interview

Hej,

Elisabeth Svantesson has given her first long interview as finance minister, speaking to the Svenska Dagbladet daily just days after she presented her first budget on behalf of Sweden’s new, right-wing government.

The government has already faced accusations of deprioritising the climate crisis, and Svantesson conceded in the interview that its planned investment in nuclear power (which is a low-emission source of energy, but takes time to develop, so it pays off only in the long run) would also make it difficult to reach Sweden’s climate targets within the next decade.

Asked what will happen if Sweden does not meet its Agenda 2030 target, the sustainable development targets agreed by the United Nations, by that year, she said: “It would mean that we don’t meet the targets. If we don’t we don’t, but our ambition is to steer towards that goal.”

That quote, which was perceived as far more laissez-faire than the situation warrants, was met with criticism from the opposition.

“I’m astounded at how you sign agreements and vote for legislation in parliament only to ignore it when you feel like it,” said Green Party leader Per Bolund.

The Social Democrats’ former finance minister Mikael Damberg gave a diplomatic-or-patronising answer (a school of conflict avoidance that can be perfected only by a party that’s more used to being in power than not being in power) and guessed that Svantesson had perhaps not meant it like that. “Svantesson has had a lot to do this week, maybe she’s tired.”

Speaking of interviews, one Swedish newsroom has not yet been getting them, at least not with senior ministers. One of public broadcaster SVT’s top political interviewers, Anders Holmberg, points out that all four right-wing party leaders and several ministers have declined to appear on his “30 minuter”, a show famous for putting hard-hitting questions to politicians and senior decision-makers. It’s of course not mandatory to say yes to all interviews even as a politician, but it’s an unusual move.

It’s interesting that Bolund tried to attack Svantesson specifically on not following through on commitments. This has been a recurring piece of criticism since the new government was elected two months ago.

The budget was more conservative (in this particular case I mean conservative as in cautious rather than as in right-wing) than you might have expected based on the government’s election pledges, and it’s not the only campaign promise that they’ve been forced to backtrack on.

“The central thing is that they’re breaking most of their major election promises at the same time as as they’re not really managing to take care of the big social problems Sweden faces today,” Damberg told SVT.

To be fair, you would kind of expect him to say this (when has a political opposition party ever praised the government’s budget?), but significantly, the criticism hasn’t only come from the left-wing opposition.

Moderate Party politicians in the powerful Skåne region earlier this month slammed their party for failing to deliver the promised support to those suffering sky high power bills in the southern Swedish county.

“There are effectively no reforms, and they’re not putting in place the policies they campaigned for in the election,” the head of the liberal think tank Timbro told the Aftonbladet newspaper about the budget.

It will be interesting to see whether the label as “promise breakers” sticks, and whether that will affect the right-wing parties in the next election.

Did you know?

Parties make more and more pledges during election campaigns. Ahead of the 2014 election, a whopping 1,848 vallöften (election promises) were made, according to research by Gothenburg University, up from 326 in 1994.

You may not believe this, because the stereotypical image of the dishonest politician perhaps unfairly endures, but research shows that most politicians keep most of their election promises most of the time.

Swedish parties in a single-party government and coalition governments with a joint manifesto tend to deliver on between 80 and 90 percent of their vallöften, according to political scientist Elin Naurin. For coalition governments without a joint manifesto, it ranges from 50 to 70 percent.

In other news

the deputy mayor of the town of Norrtälje, who got 15 seconds – technically 26 seconds – of fame after he was left speechless when a reporter asked him to defend hefty pay rises for top councillors has resigned, saying he wants to take responsibility for what happened.

He also told SVT about his long and very awkward silence on camera that his brain had simply blacked out after having worked for 13 hours straight and gone nine hours without food in the post-election frenzy.

Sweden Elects is a weekly column by Editor Emma Löfgren looking at the big talking points and issues after the Swedish election. Members of The Local Sweden can sign up to receive the column as a newsletter in their email inbox each week. Just click on this “newsletters” option or visit the menu bar.

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