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UKRAINE

France fears ‘the worst is ahead of us’ in Russia’s war on Ukraine

France on Thursday expressed fears that the worst phase of Russia's war on Ukraine could be yet to start, with key Ukrainian cities at risk of encirclement by Russian forces.

France fears 'the worst is ahead of us' in Russia's war on Ukraine
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian. Photo by François WALSCHAERTS / AFP

“I think it is possible that the worst is ahead of us,” Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told France 2 TV, saying that Russia would look to besiege cities after its initial expectations of a quick victory were scuppered by Ukrainian resistance.”

The foreign ministry on Thursday also “strongly” urged its citizens to leave Russia if their presence there was “not essential”.

“In the context of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia and following the imposition of international sanctions, we must increase our vigilance,” the foreign ministry wrote on its website. Already on Sunday, Paris had recommended French citizens passing through Russia to leave the country. 

Le Drian told France 2: “The Russians entered Ukraine looking for a blitzkrieg, a fast advance that would allow Russia to control Ukraine.

“It was not the case, due to the exemplary, courageous and strong resistance from the Ukrainians.”

He said after the fall to Russia of the southern city of Kherson – confirmed by Ukraine overnight – centres including Kharkiv in the east, Mariupol in the south and Kyiv itself were at risk of encirclement.

“As fores build up around those cities we can fear a siege mentality,” he said.

Le Drian recalled past Russian tactics in the war in Syria and also against separatists in the region of Chechnya.

“The Russians are used to this – remember Aleppo, Grozny. This could be very grave. The disaster continues and Russia’s despicable aggression continues.”

Asked what President Vladimir Putin’s strategy was for Ukraine, Le Drian replied the Russian leader wanted “the negation of Ukraine and the negation of a democratic country on his doorstep.”

He said that the tensions over the pro-Moscow Ukrainian breakaway regions of Donetsk and Lugansk ahead of the Russian invasion on February 24th were just an “alibi, a pretext”.

“Putin’s wish is to avoid having democratic models on his doorstep that could eventually have an influence on the development of Russia,” he said.

Le Drian is due later on Thursday to visit Ukraine’s neighbour Moldova in a show of support for its pro-EU government as Russian forces seek to press further east.

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UKRAINE

Macron urges ‘tangible’ NATO security guarantees for Kyiv

French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday called on the West to offer Ukraine "tangible and credible" security guarantees as it battles Russia's invasion.

Macron urges 'tangible' NATO security guarantees for Kyiv

Stressing that Ukraine “is today protecting Europe”, Macron said in Bratislava that it is in the West’s interest that Kyiv have security assurances from NATO.

“That is why I’m in favour, and this will be the subject of collective talks in the following weeks… to offer tangible and credible security guarantees to Ukraine,” he added.

He said various NATO members could provide these guarantees for the time being as Ukraine waits to join the alliance.

“We have to build something between the security provided to Israel and full-fledged membership,” Macron said.

The French head of state is on a visit to Slovakia, where he delivered a speech at an event organised by the international affairs think tank Globsec.

The event, focussed on regional security issues, comes in the run-up to the NATO summit in Lithuanian capital Vilnius on July 11th-12th.

Macron recalled that he once called the Western defence alliance “brain dead” but said Russia’s invasion last year “had jolted NATO awake”.

“We need to help Ukraine today with all means to carry out an effective counter-offensive” against Russian forces, Macron said.

“It’s what we are currently doing. We have to intensify our efforts because what will happen in the next few months offers a chance even for… a lasting peace.”

Macron also called on EU nations to buy European arms and acquire in-depth strike capabilities.

“It is up to us Europeans to in the future have our own ability to defend ourselves,” he said.

“A Europe of defence, a European pillar within NATO, is indispensable. It’s the only way to be credible… in the long-term,” he said.

The French leader also called for EU enlargement, to bring more countries into the fold.

The European Union should “invent several formats” to meet the membership aspirations of countries in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, he said.

Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine itself are among the countries which have applied to join the European bloc, but conforming to the accession rules can be a difficult and timely procedure.

“Yes, it (the EU) must enlarge. Yes, it must be rethought in terms of its governance and its aims. Yes, it must innovate, no doubt, to invent several formats and clarify the aims of each of these formats,” Macron declared.

“This is the only way to meet the legitimate expectations of the Western Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine, which must join the European Union, and to maintain the geopolitical effectiveness, but also the climate, the rule of law and the economic integration of the European Union as it exists today,” he insisted.

The two alternatives are to make candidate nations “wait indefinitely” or to let them swiftly join the existing EU structure with the risk that the bloc will no longer be able to function.

Macron will next visit Moldova on Thursday where he will meet with fellow European leaders, including from outside the European Union.

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