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Swedish politics: Why Stefan Löfven is set to return as PM two weeks after being voted out

Stefan Löfven is expected to be voted back in as prime minister today. But it’s a close vote that could be determined by even a single MP going against the party line.

Swedish politics: Why Stefan Löfven is set to return as PM two weeks after being voted out
Prime Minister Stefan Löfven leaving parliament after being ousted in a historic no-confidence vote. Photo: Nils Petter Nilsson/TT

Bring me up to speed: what has happened so far?

The government failed a vote of no confidence which brought together the Left Party (which was strongly against proposals to change Swedish rental laws, which the government had agreed with its former conservative opposition rivals) and the right-of-centre parties (which mostly support the rental law in question but seized the chance to topple the left-of-centre government).

That meant Löfven, who became the first leader in Swedish history to lose a no-confidence vote, could decide whether to call a snap election or resign. He opted for the latter, which triggered a round of party negotiations led by the parliamentary speaker.

After Ulf Kristersson, the leader of Sweden’s main opposition party the Moderates, then abandoned his own bid to form a government after realising he didn’t have the votes, the torch was handed back to Löfven – resulting in the vote about to be held in parliament today.

What will happen today?

The Swedish parliament will vote on Löfven as prime minister at 2pm.

For Löfven to be successful, he will need at least 175 of the 349 members of parliament to either abstain or not actively vote against him. In other words, he doesn’t need a majority to vote for him, as long as the majority does not actively vote against him.

But it’s a close race. Löfven’s own Social Democrats and his government coalition partner the Greens will vote for him, and both the Left Party and the Centre Party have said they will abstain. This gives Löfven 174 votes in his favour. But former Left Party representative, the independent MP Amineh Kakabaveh, on Tuesday pledged to also abstain after negotiations with the Social Democrats, bringing Löfven to 175 votes and leaving 174 potential votes against him – one short of a majority for the “no” side.

It is also possible that some Liberal MPs will go against their party line and also abstain, in protest of the party’s recent decision to support a conservative coalition which would ultimately be dependent on the support of the anti-immigration Sweden Democrat party.

If Löfven wins

If Löfven wins the vote today, he will be reinstated as prime minister (in practice he never really left, and has been leading a caretaker government since his “departure”). He is then expected to announce his new cabinet on Friday – which will likely be similar to the old cabinet, but he does have the option of reshuffling his ministers.

It is worth noting that even if Löfven is successful, he will likely have a rocky year ahead of him in the run-up to Sweden’s next general election in September 2022. He has not yet secured support for his autumn budget, with the Centre Party refusing to collaborate with the government’s other potential allies in the Left Party on a budget. Löfven has said he will again resign if his budget proposal falls.

If Löfven loses

If Löfven loses the vote, the parliamentary speaker will again reopen talks with the various parties to find a viable government coalition. The speaker gets in total four chances to nominate a prime minister candidate. If parliament rejects all of them, a snap election will automatically take place.

Such an election should be held within three months, which means it would likely take place in September. According to Swedish law this would be considered an “extra” election and would not replace ordinary elections – so the next general election would still be held according to schedule next year.

We’ll be discussing the latest political news on The Local’s Sweden in Focus podcast on Saturday. Click HERE to listen.

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POLITICS IN SWEDEN

Politics in Sweden: What are Jimmie Åkesson’s plans for the future?

Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Åkesson's absence from one of the main events in the political calendar has prompted pundits to wonder what his plans are after 18 years at the helm of the party.

Politics in Sweden: What are Jimmie Åkesson's plans for the future?

Åkesson will not speak at Almedalen Week – Sweden’s annual political festival – this year, the party announced last week.

The far-right leader told the Sweden Democrats’ communications channel Riks that he would take a longer summer holiday instead, as many Swedes do. It’s common in Sweden to take at least four weeks off in June-August, and even the world of politics tends to slow down.

That is, however, with the exception of Almedalen Week, the main event of the yearly political calendar. Every day, one or two of the party leaders delivers a keynote speech, and it is unusual for them to miss out on this opportunity to present their policies at prime time.

Unusual, but not unheard of.

Former Social Democrat leader and prime minister Stefan Löfven cancelled his attendance at the festival in 2019 and 2021 – in 2021 to deal with a government crisis – and so did former Moderate leader and prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt in 2007.

But after 18 years as leader of the Sweden Democrats, Åkesson’s absence raises questions about his plans for the future.

The news comes after he was unusually quiet following the September election, suddenly reappeared with a flurry of interviews in the Swedish newspapers in spring, only to announce he’s taking a long summer holiday.

Åkesson’s position is probably the most secure of any party leader. He led the Sweden Democrats from obscurity on the neo-Nazi fringe to becoming the country’s second largest party in just a couple of decades. If he wants to stay on, he’s unthreatened.

But does he?

At Almedalen Week, the Sweden Democrats will instead be represented by their new parliamentary group leader Linda Lindberg, to help her develop her public profile, said Åkesson.

Lindberg is currently the chair of the party’s women’s branch and could help boost its popularity among women – or at least improve its reputation as an all-boys club.

But she is new and unknown in a party with a few strong names. Often mentioned in leadership discussions are Mattias Karlsson, Henrik Vinge, Oscar Sjöstedt and Jessica Stegrud.

Karlsson is often described as the brain behind the party’s ideology and has previously deputised for Åkesson, but he has also said he doesn’t enjoy having such a senior role.

Vinge is the party’s former group leader in parliament, former press spokesperson and current deputy party leader, but he has been involved in a conflict with another party member.

Sjöstedt is the party’s spokesperson on economic issues, but is also known for featuring in a video in which he retold anti-Semitic jokes – an image the party is trying to ditch.

Stegrud, a former member of the European Parliament and current member of the Swedish parliament, joined Åkesson for his campaign tour ahead of the 2022 election. But is she well known enough among the public to take over the helm of the party?

The point may be moot, anyway. As broadcaster TV4’s political reporter points out in an article, Åkesson is practically a newbie compared to one of the Christian Democrats’ former party leaders, Alf Svensson, who held his position for more than 30 years.

And Åkesson will not want to leave unless he’s sure his shoes can be filled.

In other news

Thirteen out of 24 government ministers identify as feminists, according to a survey by Swedish public radio. The new right-wing government made headlines when it scrapped the former centre-left government’s “feminist foreign policy” when it assumed office after the 2022 election.

“Of course [I’m a feminist]. In the sense that girls and women should have the same rights and opportunities as boys and men. And that’s not the case today,” Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson told the radio.

Turkey is not ready to let Sweden into Nato, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan last week told CNN. Turkey is set to hold a new round of elections on May 28th, and Sweden’s Kristersson said he didn’t expect much to happen before then. He added that his hope was still that Sweden would become a member of Nato before the summit in Lithuania in mid-July, but conceded that time was “shrinking”. 

Sweden has appointed a new EU ambassador to replace Lars Danielsson, who will retire this summer after six years in the role.

Mikaela Kumlin Granit, who is currently Sweden’s ambassador to the UK, will take over as EU ambassador in August.

Politics in Sweden is a weekly column looking at the big talking points and issues in Swedish politics. Members of The Local Sweden can sign up to receive an email alert when the column is published. Just click on this “newsletters” option or visit the menu bar.

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