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POLITICS

Swedish politics: Why Stefan Löfven is set to return as PM two weeks after being voted out

Stefan Löfven is expected to be voted back in as prime minister today. But it’s a close vote that could be determined by even a single MP going against the party line.

Swedish politics: Why Stefan Löfven is set to return as PM two weeks after being voted out
Prime Minister Stefan Löfven leaving parliament after being ousted in a historic no-confidence vote. Photo: Nils Petter Nilsson/TT

Bring me up to speed: what has happened so far?

The government failed a vote of no confidence which brought together the Left Party (which was strongly against proposals to change Swedish rental laws, which the government had agreed with its former conservative opposition rivals) and the right-of-centre parties (which mostly support the rental law in question but seized the chance to topple the left-of-centre government).

That meant Löfven, who became the first leader in Swedish history to lose a no-confidence vote, could decide whether to call a snap election or resign. He opted for the latter, which triggered a round of party negotiations led by the parliamentary speaker.

After Ulf Kristersson, the leader of Sweden’s main opposition party the Moderates, then abandoned his own bid to form a government after realising he didn’t have the votes, the torch was handed back to Löfven – resulting in the vote about to be held in parliament today.

What will happen today?

The Swedish parliament will vote on Löfven as prime minister at 2pm.

For Löfven to be successful, he will need at least 175 of the 349 members of parliament to either abstain or not actively vote against him. In other words, he doesn’t need a majority to vote for him, as long as the majority does not actively vote against him.

But it’s a close race. Löfven’s own Social Democrats and his government coalition partner the Greens will vote for him, and both the Left Party and the Centre Party have said they will abstain. This gives Löfven 174 votes in his favour. But former Left Party representative, the independent MP Amineh Kakabaveh, on Tuesday pledged to also abstain after negotiations with the Social Democrats, bringing Löfven to 175 votes and leaving 174 potential votes against him – one short of a majority for the “no” side.

It is also possible that some Liberal MPs will go against their party line and also abstain, in protest of the party’s recent decision to support a conservative coalition which would ultimately be dependent on the support of the anti-immigration Sweden Democrat party.

If Löfven wins

If Löfven wins the vote today, he will be reinstated as prime minister (in practice he never really left, and has been leading a caretaker government since his “departure”). He is then expected to announce his new cabinet on Friday – which will likely be similar to the old cabinet, but he does have the option of reshuffling his ministers.

It is worth noting that even if Löfven is successful, he will likely have a rocky year ahead of him in the run-up to Sweden’s next general election in September 2022. He has not yet secured support for his autumn budget, with the Centre Party refusing to collaborate with the government’s other potential allies in the Left Party on a budget. Löfven has said he will again resign if his budget proposal falls.

If Löfven loses

If Löfven loses the vote, the parliamentary speaker will again reopen talks with the various parties to find a viable government coalition. The speaker gets in total four chances to nominate a prime minister candidate. If parliament rejects all of them, a snap election will automatically take place.

Such an election should be held within three months, which means it would likely take place in September. According to Swedish law this would be considered an “extra” election and would not replace ordinary elections – so the next general election would still be held according to schedule next year.

We’ll be discussing the latest political news on The Local’s Sweden in Focus podcast on Saturday. Click HERE to listen.

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MILITARY

Sweden’s parliament votes by huge majority in favour of Nato accession

Sweden's parliament has voted to ratify the country's accession to the Nato defence alliance, with its historic bill to end two centuries of non-alignment passing with a margin of 269 to 37.

Sweden’s parliament votes by huge majority in favour of Nato accession

During the six-hour debate over the bill, Sweden’s foreign minister, Tobias Billström, said he was convinced that the country’s membership would be ratified by Turkey and Hungary, the two hold-outs in the 30-member alliance, before the summit due to be held in Vilnius in the second week of July. 

“It is obvious that we are going to be able to be members at Vilnius,” he said during the debate, pointing to the backing of the other 28 member states and strong support from the US. “The strength that we have behind us is so tangible that it’s possible to come to such a judgement.”

If Sweden were not to be a member before the summer, he continued, it would put Nato’s open-door policy, a key part of its framework, in question. 

Only two of the eight parties in the Swedish parliament voted against the bill, the Left Party and the Green Party, with their MPs providing all of the 37 “no” votes. A further 43 MPs were absent. 

“It is problematic to join a military alliance with countries which are not democratic, and where we see daily that democracy is withering,” said Håkan Svenneling, the Left Party’s foreign policy spokesperson. “They are now trying to use our application to silence our voice on democracy and human rights.” 

The two parties were also critical of the fact that Sweden was now joining an alliance backed by nuclear weapons. 

“The Nato nuclear alliance is built on the idea of using nuclear weapons as a method of deterrence,” said the Green Party’s Jacob Risberg. “The Green Party do not believe in that doctrine, but believe quite the contrary, that this could lead to more conflict.” 

The Social Democrat’s foreign policy spokesperson Morgan Johansson said he was confident that Sweden would not be made to host nuclear weapons on its territory, even though its agreement with Nato contains no formal statement ruling this out. 

The government’s Nato proposition states that “there is no reason to have nuclear weapons or permanent bases on Swedish territory in peacetime”. 

“I feel completely confident in the test which has been drawn up. There is nothing at all pushing for Sweden to be forced to host bases or nuclear weapons,” he said. 

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