IN NUMBERS: Is it too soon for Italy to relax its coronavirus restrictions?

Italy last week unveiled plans to begin relaxing restrictions from the end of April. The news came as a relief to many - not least the business owners who’ve been protesting about the economic impact of the country’s prolonged shutdown.

But many in the country have questioned whether it’s really safe to do so yet amid a still-high infection rate and a sluggish vaccine rollout.

READ ALSO: Schools, restaurants, gyms, travel: Here’s Italy’s new timetable for reopening

The government insisted it was taking a “calculated risk” as it announced the reopening. However, some health experts warned on Monday that reopening too much too soon would risk triggering a new wave that could mean closures during the summer tourist season. 

“This is a very delicate phase. If the curve starts rising again, we’re risking the summer season,” Dr Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe foundation for evidence-based medicine, told Italian Radio Cusano Campus on Monday.

He stressed that the government's plan relied heavily on the public following the rules, particularly on masks and social distancing.

And, with many older and more vulnerable people still not vaccinated in Italy, doctors have warned of the risks if infections were to rise again following a relaxation of the rules.

Medical workers’ unions last week wrote to the government to urge caution, saying “any premature relaxation of restrictions could put the lives of Covid-19 patients at great risk”.  

“A slowdown of the restrictions will only be possible if daily infections remain below 5,000 cases, while maintaining a large capacity for testing, and resuming contact tracing to control the spread of the epidemic,” their recommendation read. 

The number of new cases nationwide is currently at around 15,000 daily.

“Hospitalizations would need to be far below the critical thresholds, and vaccinations complete at least for frail subjects and those over 60, the categories at the highest risk of hospitalization and mortality,” the unions warned.

While the numbers are moving in the right direction, Italy has some way to go before those requirements are met.

“It is true that new cases are progressively reducing, but we have half a million positive cases, and that’s an underestimated number,” Cartabellotta said.

“Hospital admissions are decreasing, they have decreased by almost 20% in 11 days, but in the critical area and in intensive care the descent is slower, and we still have regions that are beyond the critical threshold,” he said.

Photo: Marco Bertorello/AFP

“We need to be aware that reopening is happening on a tightrope.”

The health situation in Italy varies considerably from region to region - which is why the restrictions currently vary across the country under a system of ‘red zone’ and ’orange zone’ rules.

MAP: Which zone is your region in under Italy’s coronavirus restrictions?

Most of the planned easing of restrictions from April 26th would only apply in areas that qualify as lower-risk ‘yellow’ zones - a classification which does not apply to any part of the country at the moment.

We won’t know whether any regions actually qualify for ‘yellow’ zone status until Friday, April 23rd, when any changes will be announced based on the previous week’s regional health data.

Meanwhile, Italy’s vaccination programme appears to be speeding up, with a new daily record of almost 350,000 shots administered on Friday.

The latest tallies are welcome news after the country has faced a string of setbacks and missed targets in the vaccination rollout.

But Italy is still lagging behind the European Union average, with the number of people receiving one dose amounting to 16.9% of the population.

READ ALSO: How fast is Italy vaccinating its population compared to other European countries?

More than 10 million people in Italy have received at least one shot of a vaccine, according to official government figures.

Of those, 4.4 million have had both doses required for immunisation. 

However, Italy is a long way from having all over-60s vaccinated.

Many of those in older age groups remain at risk, with only 3.4% of people aged 70-79 fully vaccinated so far.

IN CHARTS: Who is Italy vaccinating fastest?

The government is now aiming to get 80% of the population fully vaccinated “by autumn”, which the prime minister said on Friday was an “achievable” target.

Despite recent improvements, concerns remain that the relatively slow pace of Italy’s vaccination rollout will make it more difficult for the country to safely restart travel this summer.

With many of its own citizens and residents currently unable to access the vaccine, it’s not yet known if Italy will allow vaccinated tourists to enter the country for summer holidays.

How much, and how soon, Italy is able to reopen businesses and restarts travel will depend on the health data in the coming weeks and months.

READ ALSO: 

• Can I travel to Italy if I’ve had both doses of the Covid vaccine?
• OPINION: Bureaucratic barriers must not stop Italy vaccinating its foreign residents

The government has not yet confirmed any plans to relax the current travel restrictions. Nor has it said whether the country will definitely be taking part in the EU’s Digital Green Certificates scheme, due to begin in June.

The proposed EU travel certificates will have information on whether a traveller has been vaccinated or not, if they have received a negative test result, or if they have recovered from Covid-19, allowing them to travel throughout the bloc more easily.

At the moment, the Italian government is discussing implementing a domestic travel “pass” that would allow holders to freely enter and leave Italy’s higher-risk orange and red zones, however no details of the plan have yet been announced.