Veronika Grimm is part of the German Council of Economic Experts which is advising Chancellor Angela Merkel and the German government on how to handle the coronavirus epidemic.
The Local asked Grimm, who is also Professor of economic theory at the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, questions on the German government's coronavirus strategy and what will happen in the coming weeks and months.
The Local: What do you think about the German government's plan to ease some of the coronavirus restrictions?
VG: The decisions point in the direction recommended by the various expert groups that gave advice. They all stated that under certain conditions, social and economic activity should be allowed to resume step by step and always with the highest priority on health protection.
It has to be clear that opening up certain sectors requires good preparation. This concerns availability of protective measures, test capacities, apps for infection tracing and the establishment of general hygiene standards. All this has been emphasized by Chancellor Merkel.
It is also plausible and has been recommended to proceed step by step and to evaluate the progression of pandemic in certain time intervals. This allows time to adjust to the measures taken.
From my point of view, it is now very important to prepare the next steps in all consistency. This includes the preparation of concepts on how schools can be opened to a certain extent.
Also the rule that only shops up to 800 square metres may be opened should be replaced by general guidelines, which must be observed before opening. Only this enables companies to plan and design health protection measures.
Social distancing rules will remain in place for now. How well do you think the German population is managing to follow these restrictions, and can this continue for a long period – or do people tend to get restless?
Social distancing rules will be necessary for a very long time and will become part of our everyday life. It is now important to establish clear framework conditions that enable us to combine health protection and social and economic activities. The more we know about the virus and the better prepared we are, the more successful this will be.
Do you think the gradual opening of schools from May 4th is manageable?
From my point of view it is very important to elaborate concepts how to open up the schools, always with the highest priority possible on health protection.
This might imply to switch to small group sizes and to protect teachers belonging to risk groups. It would already be an improvement if children went to school for two or three time slots a week.
Professor Veronika Grimm is part of the German Council of Economic Experts which is advising Angela Merkel and the German government. Photo courtesy of Veronika Grimm.
Angela Merkel explained how fragile the situation is. What do you think would happen if the number of infections increased in Germany when the measures were eased?
In the upcoming months, we need effective governance that can respond to such developments as quickly as possible. In our group of experts, we have proposed “Corona Task Forces”, which should be composed of experts of all relevant disciplines, both at federal and state level.
These Task Forces could quickly aggregate information available, evaluate it from different perspectives and make recommendations on sensible adjustments.
As Germany is a federal country, power is devolved to states, as we've seen in particular throughout this crisis. How do you think this impacts the strategy to exit lockdown? For example, is a uniform procedure available to Germany?
Due to the different incidence of infection alone, there must also be regional differences in opening approaches. This could also be done by rules that condition on the current infection occurrence.
The interaction between the federal and state governments is currently working well. It is important that forces and perspectives are bundled in order to combine health protection with economic and social activities as quickly and effectively as possible.
Here, due to the urgency of relaxing the regulations for social and economic reasons, everyone has the same goal in mind.
The coronavirus pandemic is having a huge impact on business. How do you see the months ahead playing out and do you think the government is doing enough to support people and businesses financially?
We will experience a severe economic downturn. The longer many economic activities are at a lockdown, the stronger the dip will be.
Therefore, a next step is important, in which economic activities are permitted under strict health protection precautions – companies can then develop concepts on the basis of which they can become active again.
This will all take a while. Not all companies have been closed by decree, and many have closed down due to lack of demand or interrupted supply chains. It is therefore all the more important that the framework conditions for resuming activity and also the governess to accompany the process are soon in place and communicated.
The government has mentioned an app that could help with contact tracing when it comes to controlling the coronavirus spread. Do you think there would be reservations about it since Germans are known for taking privacy and data protection very seriously?
I indeed hope very much that people will accept this. In this very special situation, the app can enable us to return more quickly to social and economic activities.
This opportunity should definitely be seized. It will be very important to design the framework conditions in such a way that acceptance is as high as possible. It can only work if many people use the app.
Then you can fish out whole chains of infection, so to speak, if you are fast enough. The prerequisite for this is digitisation in the health care system: here, too, we must be fast.