SHARE
COPY LINK

COVID-19

What needs to happen before European countries lift coronavirus restrictions?

With signs in some European countries that the coronavirus pandemic may have reached a plateau, governments are looking at how to lift lockdown restrictions on their crippled businesses and restless populations.

What needs to happen before European countries lift coronavirus restrictions?
AFP

But what are the conditions that countries should meet before they can start safely easing these strict measures and return to some kind of normalcy?

Don't act too quickly

Experts fear that governments will bow to economic and social pressure to lift their lockdowns prematurely, and warn that such a move could allow COVID-19 to return.

“Lifting the restrictions too quickly could lead to a deadly resurgence,” World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has said.

Christian Brechot, Institut Pasteur president and former head of French national medical research institute INSERM, said we must be “very humble and very careful” with a virus that many nations have already underestimated.

“It's not clear with a pandemic of this scale how everything can miraculously return to normal,” Brechot told France Info radio.

European nations begin lifting

Despite such advice, in the hardest-hit continent Europe — where more than 78,000 people have died from the virus — several countries have already started partially lifting confinement measures.

Germany, which has seen new cases drop and was already less affected than some of its neighbours, appeared Monday to be moving towards lifting restrictions in stages.

Austria will allow small businesses to reopen after the Easter break, believing it has sufficiently flattened its infection curve.

Denmark will reopen daycare nurseries, kindergartens and primary schools from April 15, while the Czech Republic has already begun to gradually ease restrictions, including opening some shops.

The countries are following in the footsteps of China, which has loosened its unprecedented lockdown on the city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus emerged in December, after the strict measures appeared to have paid off.

'Very high plateau'

Elsewhere in Europe, however, there are fewer signs that restrictions will soon ease.

Britain passed the grim milestone of 10,000 deaths on the weekend while France is expected to extend its lockdown for at least several weeks.

France's national health service director Jerome Salomon said a slight decrease in intensive care admissions was a “pale ray of sunshine,” adding that “a very high plateau” seemed to be setting in.

The continent's hardest-hit countries Italy and Spain also seem to have reached such a high plateau, with their daily death rates gradually falling.

But after such a devastating period, neither country is letting down its guard — Italy has extended its confinement measures until May 3, while Spain has done the same until April 25. Ireland, Portugal and Belgium have also extended their measures.

Gradual relaxation from mid-May?

“It's not when we have arrived at a plateau that we should lift confinement measures which have helped avoid massive congestion in hospitals,” said Antoine Flahault, a specialist in public health and epidemiology at the University of Geneva.

It must only happen “when we see a decline,” he told broadcaster France 2.

Researcher Brechot said he “hopes that from mid-May we will be in a situation of deceleration” which will allow a “gradual relaxation” of restrictions.

Jean-Francois Delfraissy, who leads the coronavirus science council advising the French government, said “we are not going to go from black to white, but from black to grey, with continued confinement”.

“We can start to discuss post-confinement, but the essential and principal factor is to pursue strict confinement for several weeks.”

Three conditions

Delfraissy said there were several prerequisites for lifting confinement measures.

First, there would need to be an established decline in the number of COVID-19 cases in intensive care.

This would give exhausted health workers a badly needed respite and allow hospitals to restock equipment and supplies.

The transmission rate of COVID-19 — the number of people an infected individual infects in turn — would need to have dropped below one, compared to 3.3 people at the start of the outbreak.

And finally there would need to be a sufficient number of masks to protect the populace and tests to closely monitor the virus's spread. 

For example in France, screening capacity would need to increase from the current 30,000 tests a day to 100,000 or even 150,000 a day by the end of April, Delfraissy said.

Unknowns

Of course, these conditions are subject to much uncertainty, including the possible development an app that uses smartphones to trace the contacts of infected people.

Mobile operators have already been providing location data to health researchers in France and Germany.

Another major unknown is the effect that summer has on slowing COVID-19's spread in the northern hemisphere. 

Respiratory viruses are generally less prevalent in warmer months — flu season is in winter — but will the coronavirus be the same?

“If there is no summer brake, then it will be more complicated” to lift confinement measures, said epidemiologist Flahault.

Member comments

Log in here to leave a comment.
Become a Member to leave a comment.

HEALTH

Swedish opposition proposes ‘rapid tests for ADHD’ to cut gang crime

The Moderate Party in Stockholm has called for children in so called "vulnerable areas" to be given rapid tests for ADHD to increase treatment and cut gang crime.

Swedish opposition proposes 'rapid tests for ADHD' to cut gang crime

In a press release, the party proposed that treating more children in troubled city areas would help prevent gang crime, given that “people with ADHD diagnoses are “significantly over-represented in the country’s jails”. 

The idea is that children in so-called “vulnerable areas”, which in Sweden normally have a high majority of first and second-generation generation immigrants, will be given “simpler, voluntary tests”, which would screen for ADHD, with those suspected of having the neuropsychiatric disorder then put forward for proper evaluations to be given by a child psychiatrist. 

“The quicker you can put in place measures, the better the outcomes,” says Irene Svenonius, the party’s leader in the municipality, of ADHD treatment, claiming that children in Sweden with an immigrant background were less likely to be medicated for ADHD than other children in Sweden. 

In the press release, the party said that there were “significant differences in the diagnosis and treatment of ADHD within Stockholm country”, with Swedish-born children receiving diagnosis and treatment to a higher extent, and with ADHD “with the greatest probability” underdiagnosed in vulnerable areas. 

At a press conference, the party’s justice spokesman Johan Forsell, said that identifying children with ADHD in this areas would help fight gang crime. 

“We need to find these children, and that is going to help prevent crime,” he said. 

Sweden’s climate minister Annika Strandhäll accused the Moderates of wanting to “medicate away criminality”. 

Lotta Häyrynen, editor of the trade union-backed comment site Nya Mitten, pointed out that the Moderates’s claim to want to help children with neuropsychiatric diagnoses in vulnerable areas would be more credible if they had not closed down seven child and youth psychiatry units. 

The Moderate Party MP and debater Hanif Bali complained about the opposition from left-wing commentators and politicians.

“My spontaneous guess would have been that the Left would have thought it was enormously unjust that three times so many immigrant children are not getting a diagnosis or treatment compared to pure-Swedish children,” he said. “Their hate for the Right is stronger than their care for the children. 

Swedish vocab: brottsförebyggande – preventative of crime 

SHOW COMMENTS