Why France won't really block a Brexit extension, explained in one Twitter thread
Comments from France's foreign minister that the country would block any attempt to delay Brexit for a third time received much coverage over the weekend - but is the situation really that simple?
The French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told French radio station Europe 1 that: "In the current circumstances, its no! ... We are not going to go through this every three months."
Of course, the situation is at present hypothetical as the UK has not requested any extension to the current Brexit deadline of October 31st, in fact British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he would rather be "dead in a ditch" than delay Brexit for a third time.
But if any request was made, then all 27 countries in the EU would have to agree to grant it, meaning that France does have the theoretical power to block any request made.
But would it really do that?
Political analyst Mujtaba Rahman, who has previously worked for both the European Commission and the UK's Treasury and is an adjunct professor at Sciences-Po in Paris, the London School of Economics and New York University's Stern Business School, says the situation is not quite so simple.
In an incisive thread published on Twitter, he argues that there are more nuances to the French position.
.@EmmanuelMacron is not scared of no deal. He still believes that this has gone on much too long; that the #Brexit debate threatens to derail his own agenda for EU if it drags on through 2020; that it is democratically unsound to want to block or reverse Brexit 2/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
that any outcome in which UK remains in EU would now have more downsides than upsides (UK as sullen member; danger that other European nationalists will see the failure of Brexit as a Euro-elite plot; UK’s likely opposition to his ambitions on industrial/defence policy) 3/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
Nonetheless, he's a little more relaxed about granting another A50 extension in Oct than he was in April. There is no longer the European election campaign to worry about. He believes he was right & others were wrong at the Council in April, which puts him in stronger position 4/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
but also allows him to be magnanimous/flexible. He doesn’t want to undermine his own growing position of strength & influence in EU by annoying the others again & standing alone. Thus he will certainly be on the team which is reluctant to extend but will, once again, go along 5/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
with majority view if it’s in favour of another delay (it will be). The problem will be “extend for what?” And how long? He and other EU leaders have always said they would allow more time for an election &/or 2nd referendum so there’s likely to be ready-made reason this time 6/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
But Macron (& others) will be wary of seeming to be part of/in cahoots with so called Rebel Alliance in Commons. One French official: “There seems to be a view among the anti-Johnson forces in the UK that we approve of what they’re doing. But they’re also part of problem 7/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
They can always say what they don’t want but never what they DO want. It’s like a cat that brings a half-dead mouse into your kitchen and looks at you as if to say ‘aren’t I clever?’ Well, we don’t necessarily want that mouse. Where does it take us?” 8/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
On EU negotiations with @BorisJohnson, Macron was ready to take him at his word about wanting a serious negotiation after Elysee visit last month. Macron didn’t want to be branded as the wrecker of a deal. He wanted to - & did - call Johnson’s bluff 9/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
He thought that there was room for some changes in WA (with Ireland’s blessing) that would have the same effect (no hard border/integrity of SM) but get Johnson off the semantic hook of rejecting anything called a “backstop” 10/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
French view now seems to be that Johnson has failed to follow up on original Berlin/Paris/Biarritz offer of concrete ideas; that what's been put forward fails two tests above. There’s still a lingering belief that Johnson may shift before end of October 11/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
After all, a deal with EU27 is now his easiest way out – only way out? - of the double-bind (no No-Deal; no early election) created by UK Rebel Alliance. But there is NO question of EU27 moving as far as Johnson seems to have assumed they would ENDS
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
When the most recent extension was granted in April, France took a tough line in the run-up to the meeting at the European Council, but ultimately Macron agreed with other European leaders to allow an extension, although a shorter one than had been proposed by some.
Macron said at the time that he didn't mind being the 'bad guy in the room'.
However in the end he compromised with his fellow European leaders, particularly German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had wanted to give the UK even longer to sort out its Brexit position.
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The French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told French radio station Europe 1 that: "In the current circumstances, its no! ... We are not going to go through this every three months."
Of course, the situation is at present hypothetical as the UK has not requested any extension to the current Brexit deadline of October 31st, in fact British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he would rather be "dead in a ditch" than delay Brexit for a third time.
But if any request was made, then all 27 countries in the EU would have to agree to grant it, meaning that France does have the theoretical power to block any request made.
But would it really do that?
Political analyst Mujtaba Rahman, who has previously worked for both the European Commission and the UK's Treasury and is an adjunct professor at Sciences-Po in Paris, the London School of Economics and New York University's Stern Business School, says the situation is not quite so simple.
In an incisive thread published on Twitter, he argues that there are more nuances to the French position.
.@EmmanuelMacron is not scared of no deal. He still believes that this has gone on much too long; that the #Brexit debate threatens to derail his own agenda for EU if it drags on through 2020; that it is democratically unsound to want to block or reverse Brexit 2/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
that any outcome in which UK remains in EU would now have more downsides than upsides (UK as sullen member; danger that other European nationalists will see the failure of Brexit as a Euro-elite plot; UK’s likely opposition to his ambitions on industrial/defence policy) 3/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
Nonetheless, he's a little more relaxed about granting another A50 extension in Oct than he was in April. There is no longer the European election campaign to worry about. He believes he was right & others were wrong at the Council in April, which puts him in stronger position 4/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
but also allows him to be magnanimous/flexible. He doesn’t want to undermine his own growing position of strength & influence in EU by annoying the others again & standing alone. Thus he will certainly be on the team which is reluctant to extend but will, once again, go along 5/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
with majority view if it’s in favour of another delay (it will be). The problem will be “extend for what?” And how long? He and other EU leaders have always said they would allow more time for an election &/or 2nd referendum so there’s likely to be ready-made reason this time 6/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
But Macron (& others) will be wary of seeming to be part of/in cahoots with so called Rebel Alliance in Commons. One French official: “There seems to be a view among the anti-Johnson forces in the UK that we approve of what they’re doing. But they’re also part of problem 7/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
They can always say what they don’t want but never what they DO want. It’s like a cat that brings a half-dead mouse into your kitchen and looks at you as if to say ‘aren’t I clever?’ Well, we don’t necessarily want that mouse. Where does it take us?” 8/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
On EU negotiations with @BorisJohnson, Macron was ready to take him at his word about wanting a serious negotiation after Elysee visit last month. Macron didn’t want to be branded as the wrecker of a deal. He wanted to - & did - call Johnson’s bluff 9/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
He thought that there was room for some changes in WA (with Ireland’s blessing) that would have the same effect (no hard border/integrity of SM) but get Johnson off the semantic hook of rejecting anything called a “backstop” 10/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
French view now seems to be that Johnson has failed to follow up on original Berlin/Paris/Biarritz offer of concrete ideas; that what's been put forward fails two tests above. There’s still a lingering belief that Johnson may shift before end of October 11/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
After all, a deal with EU27 is now his easiest way out – only way out? - of the double-bind (no No-Deal; no early election) created by UK Rebel Alliance. But there is NO question of EU27 moving as far as Johnson seems to have assumed they would ENDS
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) September 8, 2019
When the most recent extension was granted in April, France took a tough line in the run-up to the meeting at the European Council, but ultimately Macron agreed with other European leaders to allow an extension, although a shorter one than had been proposed by some.
Macron said at the time that he didn't mind being the 'bad guy in the room'.
However in the end he compromised with his fellow European leaders, particularly German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had wanted to give the UK even longer to sort out its Brexit position.
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