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France warns Italy against breaking EU commitments

The stability of the eurozone will be at stake if a populist new government in Italy fails to keep its financial commitments, French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire warned on Sunday.

Published: 20 May 2018 14:42 CEST
France warns Italy against breaking EU commitments
League leader Matteo Salvini and M5S leader Luigi Di Maio. Photos: Filippo MONTEFORTE, Alberto PIZZOLI / AFP
“If the new government takes the risk of not respecting its commitments on debt and the deficit, but also the clean-up of the banks, the financial stability of the eurozone will be threatened,” Le Maire told CNEWS television.
 
“Everyone must understand in Italy that Italy's future is in Europe and nowhere else, and if this future is to be in Europe, there are rules that must be respected,” he added.
 
Le Maire said previous commitments by Italy would remain “whichever government” was in place.
 
Brussels is anxious that Italy continues with efforts to bring down its massive debts in line with EU rules, wary that a new government in Rome will seek to increase public spending. The EU forecasts that Italian public debt will remain 130 percent above its GDP this year — more than double the bloc's 60-percent ceiling.
 
 
“I respect the sovereign decision of the Italian people, but there are commitments which go beyond all of us,” Le Maire said. “We will see what decisions are taken by Italian officials. I cannot stress enough how important it is to keep these commitments in the long-term to guarantee our common stability.”
 
The anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) and far-right League party, which are edging towards forming a government, called for deep changes in Italy's relations with the EU in a joint policy programme published on Friday. Italy has been in political deadlock since inconclusive elections in March.
 
 
While an exit from the single currency — mooted in leaked drafts of the document — is no longer proposed, the document announced the parties' intention to review “with European partners the economic governance framework” of the EU, including the euro.
 
The parties want a monetary union that is “appropriate for the current geopolitical and economic imbalances and consistent with the objectives of the economic union”, it said.
 
In a Facebook video, Five Star leader Luigi Di Maio said that the programme had received an approval rating of more than 94 percent after it was put to party members for a vote on M5S' online platform. The League was also offering a vote to anyone visiting party stands put up across the country over the weekend.
 
But as voter approval is little more than a formality, all eyes are on who the two parties will choose as their candidate for prime minister. They need to announce a name in time for a meeting on Monday with President Sergio Mattarella.
 
Five Star became Italy's largest party in the March elections, gaining nearly 33 percent of the vote. The League — shorn of the rest of the rightwing coalition that won 37 percent — will be the junior coalition partner with 17 percent.
 
The joint policy platform also includes a number of manifesto promises from the League, including hardline immigration and security proposals.

JOHN LICHFIELD

OPINION: Despite pension reform passing, Macron faces four years as a ‘blocked’ president

The president on Wednesday tried to sell the French people on his new ideas for the next four years of his term in office, but John Lichfield sees little chance of him being able to progress his agenda, even after pension protests have subsided.

Published: 22 March 2023 17:16 CET
OPINION: Despite pension reform passing, Macron faces four years as a 'blocked' president

President Emmanuel Macron has finally made the case for pension reform – six days after his government used special powers to ram it through the National Assembly.

His appearance on the 1pm TV news on Wednesday was both a typical Macron performance and rather strange.

Strange, first of all, because he chose to speak to the lunchtime news bulletins, which are traditionally dominated by old ways making lace or new ways of making cheese.

Strange also because Macron made a rather good case for his pension reform – and it is largely “his” reform – after choosing to evade the debate for months.

There have been six days of sometimes violent protest since the pension bill – gradually increasing France’s official retirement age from 62 to 64 – was pushed through the Assembly without a “normal” vote. There will be a ninth day of nationwide strikes and marches on Thursday.

Macron’s 40-minute interview was not pitched at the strikers or violent protesters. Short of a capitulation, he knew that they had no interest in what he might say.

The interview was pitched at a notional silent majority of French people who detest pension reform but also now want to go on with their lives. Hence the choice of the 1pm TV news bulletins. They are watched by an elderly, provincial audience. The presenters mostly skirt controversy (and the news) to celebrate a universal and eternal France.

In other words, Macron is trying to play a long game. He is waiting for the storm to pass. He is counting on a public backlash to gather against the disruption of the strikes and the violence of a minority of protesters.

The President offered – again somewhat belatedly – a list of the more agreeable reforms which might be completed in the final four years of his mandate if normal political life resumes.

There could, he said, be new legislation to force large companies to share “exceptional profits” with their workers rather than increase their bosses’ salaries or buy back company shares.

You can listen to John Lichfield talk about the political crisis engulfing France in our new Talking France podcast on Spotify, Apple or Google podcasts. Download it HERE or listen on the link below.

 

He invited the unions to put the toys back into the pram and start a new “dialogue” with the government on ways of easing the final working years of people in physically demanding jobs. He did not mention that similar measures once existed but were dismantled during his first term.

His defence of the pension reform was drawn from the “blood, sweat and tears” school of political rhetoric (but accurate enough). France could not preserve its posterity and social model if it persisted in working less than its partners and competitors, he said.

What did people expect of him, he asked ? That he should “do as my predecessors did and sweep the dirt under the carpet?”

It is a pity, and a mystery, that Macron not make this case weeks ago. Instead, he chose to leave the selling of the reform to the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, and her ministers, who alternated between describing it as “tough but fair” and a “left-wing” social advance.

On Borne’s future, Macron was not entirely convincing. Many people, including myself, have predicted that she will pay the traditional price of French prime ministers  and will be dumped by Macron within a month or so to try to clear the air or give a new sense of direction to the government.

Macron said, rather curtly, that Borne had his “confidence”, But he also said that he expected her to enlarge her centrist minority government by finding new parliamentary allies from the centre-right or centre-left.

She has tried that before and failed. My interpretation of Macron’s words is that, if she fails again, he will appoint a new prime minister who may be able to lasso a few of the 30 or so centre-right Les Républicains (LR) deputies who supported the reform and then helped to defeat opposition censure motions on Monday.

Les Républicains, the rump of the once-great Gaullist movement, have been shattered by the pensions reform crisis. That may eventually be good news for Macron or his would-be centrist successors. It may, however, also be good news for Marine Le Pen.

So what now?

Macron seemed to say at one point that he was anticipating another two to three weeks of demonstrations and strikes before the protests subsided. He may be right. It is worth recalling, however, that the Giles Jaune (yellow vest) rebellion lasted for six months in 2018-9 before it petered out.

The problem facing the trades unions is to keep the protests going. There will be a huge turn-out for the marches on Thursday but the bigger the numbers, the harder they will be to sustain in the days and weeks ahead.

The open-ended oil refinery and rubbish-collection strikes are beginning to cause real problems – and also real annoyance. It is that swing in the public mood that Macron is relying on.

The pension reform law is being studied by the Constitutional Council. The great and good members of the Council must pronounce within three weeks. If they reject the law (possible but unlikely), Macron will be humiliated and the protests will have no reason to continue.

If they approve the law, the protests may subside.

Either way, I see little chance of Macron getting much domestic business done in his final four years. The pension law was supposed to be the gateway to other reforms.

Despite the would-be, feel-good agenda that the President offered, despite the inevitable decline in protests, there is no obvious way forward.

Pensions may end up, not as the gateway to further reform, but as a flaming barricade.

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